结语
民意作为重要的“第三方因素”在国际政治的舞台扮演着越来越重要的角色。伴随着中美关系的动荡发展，美国涉台民意也呈现出特殊的波动趋势，这将影响到美国对华与涉台政策和中美关系的健康发展。在美国官方和民间的双重塑造下，民众认为台湾在中美关系中的重要程度提升，对台好感度上升对华好感度下降，尤其是在俄乌冲突以后更加关注大陆武统台湾问题，支持美国协防台湾的占比上升，在台湾问题相关议题上逐渐形成了两党共识，普遍支持美台关系进一步深入发展。但大多数人对台湾问题和两岸关系的瞭解程度不足，民众对于台湾问题的看法可能随着现实状况有所波动。之所以美国民意出现这样的变化主要是由于五个方面的因素使然，即美国政府开启全面对华战略竞争，民意与政见互动挺台反中呈跨党社会共识；俄乌冲突持续，“今日乌克兰，明日台湾”舆论氛围影响公众认知；台湾当局不断提高国际能见度，推行倚美谋独政策；媒体、智库和学者的涉台表述更加强硬，间接导致民众对台认知的不理性；中国实力的提升和统一政治意愿的增强，中美实力差距缩小。美国对台民意的变化造成了一定的影响，不仅会塑造美国政府对台政策，导致中美敌意螺旋上升，而且还会纵容“台独”势力，不利于两岸关系和台海局势稳定。因此，中国必须要重视美国涉台民意的变化，在宏观上保持战略定力和耐力，积极处理好中美竞合关系中的台湾问题，同时努力突破“今日乌克兰，明日台湾”的叙事框架，注重中国“一国两制”和一个中国原则的国际话语叙事，推动多元化公共外交的发展，从而改善美国涉台民意，为两岸关系发展与中美关系稳定提供有利的舆论空间。与此同时，需要注意的是，民意调查数据即使出自专业机构，调研方法较为科学规范，也并不意味着调查结果是绝对真实的。政治取向、年龄、媒体以及民调问题与选项的设计本身都会在一定程度上对结果产生影响，认识到民调偏差的存在有助于更客观地理解和分析这些民调结果。
注释：
〔1〕"Fast facts about Americans' views of China-Taiwan tensions." Pew Research Center. August 1, 2022. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/08/01/fast-facts-about-americans-views-of-china-taiwan-tensions/
〔2〕"Americans are increasingly worried about China-Taiwan tensions." Pew Research Center. March 29, 2023. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/03/29/americans-are-increasingly-worried-about-china-taiwan-tensions/
〔3〕"Unfavorable Views of China Reach Historic Highs in Many Countries." Pew Research Center. October 6, 2020.https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/10/06/unfavorable-views-of-china-reach-historic-highs-in-many-countries/
〔4〕"Record-Low 15% of Americans View China Favorably." Gallup. March 7, 2023. https://news.gallup.com/poll/471551/record-low-americans-view-china-favorably.aspx
〔5〕"2022 Survey of Public Opinion on US Foreign Policy." Chicago Council on Global Affairs. October 20, 2022. https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/2022-chicago-council-survey?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIy9zJv4uX_wIVD1tgCh1AvgBUEAAYAiAAEgLi0vD_BwE
〔6〕"New Public Opinion Polling on US Support for Defending Taiwan." Global Taiwan Institute. August 24, 2022. https://globaltaiwan.org/2022/08/new-public-opinion-polling-on-us-support-for-defending-taiwan/
〔7〕"Record-Low 15% of Americans View China Favorably." Gallup. March 7, 2023. https://news.gallup.com/poll/471551/record-low-americans-view-china-favorably.aspx
〔8〕"Election Integrity: Most Voters Expect Cheating Will Affect 2024 Outcome." Rasmussen Reports. June 14, 2023.https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/biden_administration/election_integrity_most_voters_expect_cheating_will_affect_2024_outcome
〔9〕"Americans Favor Aiding Taiwan Against China." Chicago Council on Global Affairs. August 11,2022. https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/americans-favor-aiding-taiwan-against-china
〔10〕"Inflection Point: Americans' Foreign Policy Views After Afghanistan." Eurasia Group Foundation. September 2021. https://egfound.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/2021-09-Inflection-Point.pdf
〔11〕"New Public Opinion Polling on US Support for Defending Taiwan." Global Taiwan Institute. August 24, 2022. https://globaltaiwan.org/2022/08/new-public-opinion-polling-on-us-support-for-defending-taiwan/
〔12〕"National Tracking Poll #2205144May 24-26, 2022Crosstabulation Results." Morning Consult. June 2022. https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/05/31160405/2205144_crosstabs_GEOPOLITICAL_RISK_RV_RVs_v1_LM.pdf
〔13〕"Election Integrity: Most Voters Expect Cheating Will Affect 2024 Outcome." Rasmussen Reports. June 14, 2023.https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/biden_administration/election_integrity_most_voters_expect_cheating_will_affect_2024_outcome
〔14〕"Americans Favor Aiding Taiwan Against China." Chicago Council on Global Affairs. August 11,2022. https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/americans-favor-aiding-taiwan-against-china
〔15〕"Do Republicans and Democrats Want a Cold War with China?." Chicago Council on Global Affairs. October 13, 2020. https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/do-republicans-and-democrats-want-cold-war-china
〔16〕"China's Partnership With Russia Seen as Serious Problem for the U.S." Pew Research Center. April 28, 2022. https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2022/04/28/chinas-partnership-with-russia-seen-as-serious-problem-for-the-us/
〔17〕"Americans Favor Aiding Taiwan Against China." Chicago Council on Global Affairs. August 11,2022. https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/americans-favor-aiding-taiwan-against-china
〔18〕"Record-Low 15% of Americans View China Favorably." Gallup. March 7, 2023. https://news.gallup.com/poll/471551/record-low-americans-view-china-favorably.aspx
〔19〕"More Americans prefer taking a strong stand to protect Taiwan than would choose good China relations." yougov. March 02, 2023. https://today.yougov.com/topics/international/articles-reports/2023/03/01/american-opinion-china-taiwan-conflict-poll
〔20〕"Americans Favor Aiding Taiwan Against China." Chicago Council on Global Affairs. August 11,2022. https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/americans-favor-aiding-taiwan-against-china
〔21〕"Unfavorable Views of China Reach Historic Highs in Many Countries." Pew Research Center. October 6, 2020.https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/10/06/unfavorable-views-of-china-reach-historic-highs-in-many-countries/
〔22〕"More Americans prefer taking a strong stand to protect Taiwan than would choose good China relations." yougov. March 02, 2023. https://today.yougov.com/topics/international/articles-reports/2023/03/01/american-opinion-china-taiwan-conflict-poll
〔23〕"National Tracking Poll #2205144May 24-26, 2022Crosstabulation Results." Morning Consult. June 2022. https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/05/31160405/2205144_crosstabs_GEOPOLITICAL_RISK_RV_RVs_v1_LM.pdf
〔24〕"More Americans prefer taking a strong stand to protect Taiwan than would choose good China relations." yougov. March 02, 2023. https://today.yougov.com/topics/international/articles-reports/2023/03/01/american-opinion-china-taiwan-conflict-poll
〔25〕《国务委员兼外交部长王毅就中国外交政策和对外关系回答中外记者提问》，新华网，2022年3月8日，https://baike.baidu.com/reference/60239503/7e7bQkhLZFJb5f_dAJtG3O0O0pAe4n53QxK-2mZitSw3teATYwOwfqcbv0rUcGa7OsrgZZOnWUHLR5tPuoyuBNw_0DDdE-o6Fg
〔26〕罗伯特·杰维斯. 国际政治中的知觉与错误知觉[M].上海人民出版社:东方编译所译丛, 201505.515.
〔27〕"US majority support defending Taiwan." Taipei Times. Apr 17, 2023. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2023/04/17/2003798073
〔28〕《劳拉·苏沃：皮尤研究中心最新的中美关系民调说明了什么？》，观察者网，2022年11月15日，https://www.guancha.cn/LauraSilver/2022_11_15_666743.shtml
〔29〕"Do Republicans and Democrats Want a Cold War with China?." Chicago Council on Global Affairs. October 13, 2020. https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/do-republicans-and-democrats-want-cold-war-china
〔30〕"Americans Warm to U.S. Defense of Taiwan if China Invades." Newsweek. April 14,2023. https://www.newsweek.com/americans-warm-us-defense-taiwan-china-invades-1793738
〔31〕《共军若犯台美太平洋舰队司令：命令一到马上援台》，自由时报，2023年3月22日，https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/paper/1573347
〔32〕"Record-Low 15% of Americans View China Favorably." Gallup. March 7, 2023. https://news.gallup.com/poll/471551/record-low-americans-view-china-favorably.aspx
〔33〕"Americans are increasingly worried about China-Taiwan tensions." Pew Research Center. March 29, 2023. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/03/29/americans-are-increasingly-worried-about-china-taiwan-tensions/
〔34〕《蔡英文会见佩洛西：对军事威胁不退缩 坚定维护主权》，联合早报，2022年8月3日，https://www.kzaobao.com/guping/20220803/122212.html
〔35〕《台湾立法院长访美 谈捍卫“民主灯塔”重要性》，德国之声中文网，2023年2月2日，https://www.dw.com/zh/%E5%8F%B0%E7%81%A3%E7%AB%8B%E6%B3%95%E9%99%A2%E9%95%B7%E8%A8%AA%E7%BE%8E-%E8%AB%87%E6%8D%8D%E8%A1%9B%E6%B0%91%E4%B8%BB%E7%87%88%E5%A1%94%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81%E6%80%A7/a-64586878
〔36〕《蔡英文接见美众议员肯纳：盼强化台美经济关系》，雅虎新闻，2023年2月21日，https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E8%94%A1%E8%8B%B1%E6%96%87%E6%8E%A5%E8%A6%8B%E7%BE%8E%E7%9C%BE%E8%AD%B0%E5%93%A1-%E8%82%AF%E7%B4%8D-%E7%9B%BC%E5%BC%B7%E5%8C%96%E5%8F%B0%E7%BE%8E%E7%B6%93%E6%BF%9F%E9%97%9C%E4%BF%82-090624575.html
〔37〕Lippmann W,Curtis M. Public opinion[M]. Routledge,2017.p.89.
〔38〕"Epublicans less likely to trust their main news source if they see it as 'mainstream'; Democrats more likely." Pew Research Center. July 1, 2021.https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/07/01/republicans-less-likely-to-trust-their-main-news-source-if-they-see-it-as-mainstream-democrats-more-likely/
〔39〕周文星.美国智库对华政策的认知、根源及其应对——基于智库专家涉华研究的比较分析[J].情报杂志,2023,42(02):57-64.
〔40〕Dan Blumenthal. "The Ukraine Crisis: Implications for U.S. Policy in the Indo-Pacific." American Enterprise Institute. May 19, 2022. https://www.aei.org/research-products/testimony/the-ukraine-crisis-implications-for-u-s-policy-in-the-indo-pacific-building-a-coalition-to-deter-war/
〔41〕Hal Brands. "Getting Ready for a Long War with China: Dynamics of Protracted Conflict in the Western Pacific." American Enterprise Institute. July 25, 2022. https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/getting-ready-for-a-long-war-with-china-dynamics-of-protracted-conflict-in-the-western-pacific/
〔42〕Stacie Pettyjohn, Becca Wasser and Chris Dougherty. "Dangerous Straits: Wargaming a Future Conflict over Taiwan." CNAS. June 15, 2022. https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/dangerous-straits-wargaming-a-future-conflict-over-taiwans
〔43〕Politico. "Pompeo: U.S. engagement with China has failed." July 23， 2023. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/23/pompeo-china-speech-nixon-380251
〔44〕"National Security Strategy 2022." White House. Assessed in October，2022.
〔45〕《调查：美国人认为中国对美构成最大国安威胁》，联合早报，2021年12月2日，https://www.kzaobao.com/cngov/2021-12/02105621.html
〔46〕U.S. Views of China Increasingly Negative Amid Coronavirus Outbreak[EB/OL]. Pew Research Center - U.S. Politics & Policy,2020-04-21.https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/04/21/u-s-views-of-china-increasingly-negative-amid-coronavirus-outbr eak/
〔47〕阮建平，瞿琼. “中国威胁”的社会建构及解构对策——以国际传播对中国“北极威胁者”形象建构为例[J]. 国际观察，2020(3):21.
〔48〕罗伯特·杰维斯. 国际政治中的知觉与错误知觉[M].上海人民出版社:东方编译所译丛, 201505.515.
〔49〕Wang X. Winning American hearts and minds: China's image building efforts in the 21st century[M]. Springer Nature,2020.p.9.
（全文刊载于《中国评论》月刊2023年9月号，总第309期） |
